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ACCELERATE
Link To Current Phase Review And Analysis Economy is growing so fast the Federal Reserve will begin to tighten credit and interest rates will begin to rise. Leading economic variables include the federal funds rate, the consumer price index and the adjusted monetary base.
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Period: January 1980 to March 1996
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EASEOFF The year-to-year change in industrial production peaks and starts to decline. Leading economic variables include hours worked, non-farm payroll employment and initial unemployment claims. |
Period: January 1980 to March 1996
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PLUNGE Economy continues to decline while interest rates peak and turn down. Leading economic variables include the spread between long-term and short-term interest rates. |
Period: January 1980 to March 1996
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REVIVAL 1 Economy bottoms (GDP and industrial production) and starts to recover while interest rates continue to decline. Leading economic variables include hours worked, initial unemployment claims, non-farm payrolls and the year-to-year change in industrial production. |
Period: January 1980 to March 1996
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REVIVAL 2 Economy continues to strengthen and inflation begins to slowly rise. Leading economic variables include commodity price indexes, the consumer price index and capital spending. |
Period: January 1980 to March 1996
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