QInsight Group - Our U.S. Business Cycle Model

Our U.S. Business Cycle

"Like all Holmes's reasoning, the thing seemed simplicityitselfwhen it was once explained."
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
(The Memoirs of Sherlock Holmes,
The Stockbroker's Clerk, 1894)

Our investment approach begins by identifying which of the five phases the U.S. economy is in (ACCELERATE, EASEOFF, PLUNGE, REVIVAL 1 and REVIVAL2).The graphic to the right shows why this is so important. This graphic shows the average annual returns from 1980 for the S&P 500 index (stocks)and the Lehman Government / Corporate index (bonds) as well as the average time each phase has lasted in months. Note how much the annual returns for these two asset classes fluctuate in each phase. The current phase is highlightedfor you. Click on each phase to learn more about each. The current phase also includes a list of industry groups that have historically outperformed the S&P 500 index during that phase.

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